U.S. Housing Crash Deepens in 2008 After Record Drop (Update2)

By Daniel Taub

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- For U.S. homeowners, builders, bankers and realtors, the crash of 2007 will only get worse in 2008.

Everyone from mortgage-finance company Fannie Mae to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. expects declines next year. Existing home sales will drop 12 percent and existing home prices will fall 4.5 percent, Washington-based Fannie Mae says. Lehman analysts estimate almost 1 million mortgage loans will default in 2008, up from about 300,000 this year.

``We're only halfway through the housing shock,'' said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at New York-based Lehman, the fourth- biggest U.S. securities firm by market value. ``It's just a matter of time before the weakness spreads to the rest of the economy.''

The housing market collapse has been anything but the ``soft landing'' that Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen and David Lereah, former chief economist at the National Association of Realtors in Chicago, predicted for real estate at the start of 2007.

Median home prices declined in the U.S. this year, the first annual drop since the Great Depression, according to forecasts from the National Association of Realtors.

``I'm not going to sit here and tell you it's going to turn real strong next year,'' said Jim Gillespie, chief executive officer of Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC, the largest U.S. residential brokerage, according to Franchise Times. ``It's not going to turn real strong next year.'' Gillespie said he doesn't make housing market forecasts.

`Let the House Go'

Analysts at New York-based CreditSights Inc. predict housing won't rebound until ``2009, at best.'' Moody's Economy.com Inc., the economic forecasting unit of Moody's Corp. in New York, says home sales will hit bottom next year, declining 40 percent from their peak. And U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's plan to slow foreclosures won't help those who already are facing the loss of their homes, like C.W. and Sandy Hicks of Las Vegas.

The Hickses refinanced the mortgage on their four-bedroom, 1,300-square foot home two years ago. Their $237,000 adjustable- rate loan resets every month, and now their monthly payment has jumped 50 percent to $2,700. The couple can't afford it.

``It looks like we're going to have to let the house go,'' said C.W. Hicks, 65, a long-haul truck driver who has kept working past retirement age to help pay medical bills for his wife Sandy, 59, who has heart problems. ``I guess we'll try to rent a house or something.''

The Hickses aren't the only ones grappling with the consequences of this year's housing market. The number of Americans behind on their mortgage payments rose to a 20-year high in the third quarter, the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association said earlier this month.

Lender, Homebuilder Woes

``The whole thing has deteriorated faster and further than we or anyone else had anticipated,'' said Ron Muhlenkamp, president of Wexford, Pennsylvania-based Muhlenkamp & Co., which has about $2.5 billion under management and holds shares of mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. and homebuilder Ryland Group Inc.

The five biggest U.S. homebuilders by revenue, led by Miami- based Lennar Corp., recorded writedowns and charges totaling about $7.5 billion this year for land that plunged in value.

Mortgage companies, including Irvine, California-based New Century Financial Corp., the second-largest subprime lender in 2006, have filed for bankruptcy protection after borrowers unable to repay their loans defaulted.

H&R Block Inc. of Kansas City, Missouri, shut Option One this month after plans to sell the subprime home-lending unit fell apart, and U.S. regulators ordered Santa Monica, California-based Fremont General Corp. to stop selling subprime mortgages, loans given to people with poor or limited credit histories or high debt levels.

O'Neal, Prince Fall

Bank and brokerage writedowns and losses related to subprime loans totaled more than $80 billion. Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, last month said it would write down the value of subprime mortgages and collateralized debt obligations -- securities backed by bonds and loans -- by $8 billion to $11 billion. At Merrill Lynch & Co., writedowns on mortgage-related investments and corporate loans have cost the world's biggest brokerage $8.4 billion. Both companies are based in New York.

The losses led to the ouster of Merrill Chief Executive Officer Stan O'Neal and the resignation of Citigroup CEO Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince III. O'Neal's exit came after he said as late as July that ``not even a sharp downturn in one market today necessarily portends financial disaster in another, and we're seeing this play out today in the subprime market.''

U.K., Canada

Fallout from the subprime crisis in the U.S. has crimped economic expansions in the U.K., Canada and Germany.

Investment in U.K. commercial real estate may slump 60 percent in the fourth quarter as buyers shun large acquisitions of shops and offices, Chicago-based Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., the world's second-largest property brokerage, said Dec. 10.

Spending on British commercial real estate, Europe's largest investment market, may decline in the final three months of the year to 5 billion pounds ($10.2 billion) from 18.6 billion pounds a year earlier, Jones Lang said in a statement. Investment for all of 2007 may fall 24 percent to about 48 billion pounds.

Falling prices are already hurting U.K. property funds. New Star Asset Management Group Ltd., the fund company founded by John Duffield, said earlier this week that value of its U.K. commercial property mutual fund was cut by 8.2 percent after the value of its buildings dropped 18 percent since July.

Market lending rates rose worldwide in the past month as writedowns linked to subprime defaults heightened concerns about the strength of financial institutions.

Anxiety Continues

``Until the public is convinced that the subprime credit exposure has been identified, quantified and dealt with, there will continue to be anxiety,'' said Todd Canter, international director at LaSalle Investment Management in Baltimore, where he helps manage about $11 billion in real estate stocks. ``There will continue to be volatility in the marketplace.''

Some economists and real estate executives say the industry may be on the verge of turning around. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said ``we are touching the bottom'' for existing-home sales. Coldwell Banker's Gillespie said demographic and economic changes, such as rising immigration and employment, will help boost home sales.

``People buy for lifestyle, and there's a lot of pent-up demand out there,'' Gillespie said.

Offices, Apartments

U.S. office sales fell 70 percent in October from a year ago, industrial sales declined 24 percent, and retail and apartment sales dropped 50, according to New York-based research firm Real Capital Analytics Inc. The declines are the biggest since the company began keeping records in 2001.

The 128-member Bloomberg REIT Index rose 62 percent in the two years ended Feb. 8, the day before New York-based Blackstone Group LP bought Equity Office Properties Trust for $39 billion, including debt, in the real estate industry's biggest leveraged buyout. The index has dropped 26 percent since then.

``You're not seeing the Equity Office transactions anymore,'' said Dan Fasulo, Real Capital's managing director for research. ``It's extremely difficult right now to finance the large portfolio transaction and privatizations we've seen over the last couple of years. I can't even think of one major privatization that has been announced since the credit crunch.''

Mission West Properties Inc., owner of almost 8 million square feet of Silicon Valley commercial buildings, disclosed talks in July with a private equity firm about being acquired. The Cupertino, California-based company said a month later the sale might fail after a bank withdrew funding. Mission West then said in October that there remained three potential bidders. A transaction hasn't yet been announced.

Sales Delayed

Highwoods Properties Inc., the owner of almost 34 million square feet of commercial space, said last month that it no longer expects to sell properties in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, totaling 1.6 million square feet. The company cited ``volatility of the capital markets'' as the reason the sale didn't go through.

``I know we weren't predicting things would get this bad,'' said Frank Liantonio, executive vice president for global capital markets at New York-based Cushman & Wakefield Inc., the largest closely held real estate services provider. ``There were some signs there, but I don't think anyone anticipated the level of dislocation that was actually created.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Taub in Los Angeles at dtaub@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: December 14, 2007 17:28 EST

The down-payment-poor are about to get squeezed

Kenneth Harney -- Nation's Housing, December 9, 2007. baltimoresun.com

Call it the credit risk hangover following the housing boom binge: Homebuyers and refinancers who can't come up with sizable down payments, and whose FICO credit scores are below 680, are about to get squeezed in the mortgage market.

Giant investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are imposing significant increases in fees for a broad range of borrowers who have lower than 30 percent down payments and formerly were treated as "prime" credit applicants.

At the same time, the two largest private mortgage insurers -- MGIC Corp. and PMI Group -- are raising premiums on consumers who have low down payments and FICO scores in the mid to upper 600s.

The added costs for some potential homebuyers could mount into the thousands of dollars -- either up front at settlement or in the form of higher interest rates. Each of the companies says it has experienced unexpectedly high losses on loans with these characteristics and must now revise prices upward to handle the elevated risks. But some mortgage bankers and brokers say the higher costs and down payments will make homeownership impossible or very difficult for a large number of borrowers, and slow any future housing market recovery.

Though Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's revised fees won't take effect until March 1, major lenders who sell loans to the two investors began imposing the surcharges on applicants at the beginning of December. Some mortgage loan officers are upset that clients with FICO scores close to 700 -- far above the once-traditional 620 cutoff point between "prime" and "subprime" -- are now being charged more.

"This is outrageous," said Steven Moore, a mortgage broker with 1st Solution Mortgage in Falls Church, Va. "On a loan of $300,000 and with a credit score of 675 -- which is not a bad score -- and a 75 percent loan-to-value ratio (25 percent down payment), the cost is an additional $2,250 per loan."

If the same borrower wants to do a cash-out refinancing to consolidate debt, the new Fannie-Freddie fee schedule will add another $1,500 to total costs on a $300,000 mortgage, said Moore. On a $400,000 loan, he estimates the extra fees would total $5,000.

Jeff Lipes, president of Family Choice Mortgage in Wethersfield, Conn., said the new emphasis on higher FICO scores and larger down payments could greatly complicate rate quotations. "To get any sort of quote, you're going to need to know your FICO score in advance and, before actually applying, you may need to take some steps to raise your FICO score."

Under previous standards, applicants with scores comfortably above 620 "could reasonably assume" they would qualify for a good rate, said Lipes. "But now we've got this whole new gray area between 620 and 680" FICOs under the revised Fannie/Freddie risk-based pricing guidelines. Joint applicants where one spouse or partner has a FICO score below the new guidelines will need to take special care, according to Lipes, so as not to trigger higher credit-risk fees.

Lipes predicts loan officers and brokers will make far greater use of so-called "rapid rescoring" services offered by some local credit bureaus to increase applicants' scores legally by correcting errors, lowering debt utilization ratios on credit card accounts and other techniques.

Here's a quick overview of the new policies from Fannie and Freddie affecting loan applications where the down payment amount is less than 30 percent: If the borrower's credit score is less than 620, a new 2 percent fee will be imposed. If the score is between 620 and 639, the surcharge will be 1 3/4 percent. If it is between 640 and 659, the add-on will be 1 1/4 percent. On scores between 660 and 679, the surcharge will be three-fourths of 1 percent.

According to mortgage banker Lipes, if applicants choose to roll the higher fees into the interest rate on the mortgage, the new Fannie/Freddie charges generally will increase rates by anywhere from one-eighth to one-half of 1 percent.

The MGIC mortgage insurance premium increases, which were scheduled for announcement the first week of December, are expected to have the heaviest impacts on borrowers making down payments of less than 3 percent and whose FICO scores are below 660, according to company officials. On such loans, MGIC is expected to raise premiums to 1.7 percent per $100,000 of loan amount, up from the current premium level of 0.96 percent. On a $200,000 mortgage, that would raise the annual premiums from $1,920 to $3,400.

The PMI Group's increased premium levels, which have already taken effect, are roughly similar, but the company also announced that it will no longer insure any mortgages where the down payment is less than 5 percent and the borrower's FICO score is below 620.

kenharney@earthlink.net

Foreclosures.com sees 93% rise in foreclosure filings

Number of REO properties up 41% from a year ago
Thursday, December 13, 2007

Inman News

Initial foreclosure filings rose 93 percent from January through November compared to the same period last year, foreclosure research company Foreclosures.com reported this week, and the number of homes that ended up as bank-owned properties rose 41 percent.

An estimated 1.08 million homes, or 14.8 of every 1,000 households, entered the foreclosure process nationwide in the first 11 months of the year. And 526,936 households, or 6.6 homes out of every 1,000 households, reverted to lender ownership.

An estimated 72,101 homes nationwide were repossessed by lenders in November alone, up 31.8 percent compared to October. Bank-owned properties are also known as real estate-owned, or REO, properties.

The Foreclosures.com statistics are based on an analysis of the number of formal notices filed against a property in the foreclosure process. The company noted that depending on the location and laws, there can be two to three filings per property, including notice of default and/or notice of foreclosure auction, and notice of REO or bank-owned real estate, which happens after a foreclosed property fails to sell at auction and reverts back to the lender.

Not all pre-foreclosures end up as REO properties because some homeowners may avoid foreclosure through short sales or other workouts with lenders, for example.

The Mortgage Banker Association reported earlier this month that the rate of foreclosure starts and the percentage of loans in foreclosure during the third-quarter reached record highs, and the delinquency rate on all loans rose 47 basis points from the second quarter to 5.59 percent -- the highest level since 1986.

And foreclosure data company RealtyTrac reported that nationwide foreclosure filings jumped 94 percent in October compared to October 2006.

Alexis McGee, president of Foreclosures.com, said in a statement that there are "pockets of actual drops in the number of foreclosure and pre-foreclosure filings from a year ago," despite the national increase.

"More foreclosures isn't an unexpected trend as greater numbers of overextended homeowners facing tightened credit run out of options to foreclosure," she stated. "The housing financial crunch could ease a bit, but only time will tell just how much of an effect and how many homeowners will be helped by the various workout options to be made available."

The company reported statistics for REOs by region, per capita, in January-November 2007 compared to the same period in 2006:


In the Midwest (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) there was a rate of 8.8 foreclosure filings per 1,000 households, up 23.9 percent.


In the Southwest (including Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas and Washington), the rate was 8.3 filings per 1,000 households, up 72.9 percent.


In the Southeast (including Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee and Virginia): the rate was 7.1 filings per 1,000 households, up 31.5 percent.


In other states (including Alaska, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana and Utah) the rate was 6.2 REOs per every 1,000 households, down 1.6 percent.


In the Northeast (includes Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Washington, D.C.), the rate was 1.4 filings per 1,000 households, up 7.7 percent.

REOs by the top-10 states per capita in January-November 2007 vs. the same period last year:


Nevada had 16.7 filings per 1,000 households in January-November 2007 vs. 6.2 for every 1,000 households during that period in 2006.


Colorado had 16.3 filings per 1,000 households during that period in 2007 vs. 20.9 for every 1,000 households during that period in 2006.


Michigan had 15.4 filings per 1,000 households during January-November 2007 vs. 10.2 during that period in 2006.

***

Interest rate 'freeze' - the real story is fraud

MORTGAGE MELTDOWN
Bankers pay lip service to families while scurrying to avert suits, prison

Sean Olender
San Francisco Chronicle
Sunday, December 9, 2007

New proposals to ease our great mortgage meltdown keep rolling in. First the Treasury Department urged the creation of a new fund that would buy risky mortgage bonds as a tactic to hide what those bonds were really worth. (Not much.) Then the idea was to use Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy the risky loans, even if it was clear that U.S. taxpayers would eventually be stuck with the bill. But that plan went south after Fannie suffered a new accounting scandal, and Freddie's existing loan losses shot up more than expected.

Now, just unveiled Thursday, comes the "freeze," the brainchild of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. It sounds good: For five years, mortgage lenders will freeze interest rates on a limited number of "teaser" subprime loans. Other homeowners facing foreclosure will be offered assistance from the Federal Housing Administration.

But unfortunately, the "freeze" is just another fraud - and like the other bailout proposals, it has nothing to do with U.S. house prices, with "working families," keeping people in their homes or any of that nonsense.

The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks and forcing them to buy back worthless mortgage securities at face value - right now almost 10 times their market worth.

The ticking time bomb in the U.S. banking system is not resetting subprime mortgage rates. The real problem is the contractual ability of investors in mortgage bonds to require banks to buy back the loans at face value if there was fraud in the origination process.

And, to be sure, fraud is everywhere. It's in the loan application documents, and it's in the appraisals. There are e-mails and memos floating around showing that many people in banks, investment banks and appraisal companies - all the way up to senior management - knew about it.

I can hear the hum of shredders working overtime, and maybe that is the new "hot" industry to invest in. There are lots of people who would like to muzzle subpoena-happy New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to buy time and make this all go away. Cuomo is just inches from getting what he needs to start putting a lot of people in prison. I bet some people are trying right now to make him an offer "he can't refuse."

Despite Thursday's ballyhooed new deal with mortgage lenders, does anyone really think that it can ultimately stop fraud lawsuits by mortgage bond investors, many of them spread out across the globe?

The catastrophic consequences of bond investors forcing originators to buy back loans at face value are beyond the current media discussion. The loans at issue dwarf the capital available at the largest U.S. banks combined, and investor lawsuits would raise stunning liability sufficient to cause even the largest U.S. banks to fail, resulting in massive taxpayer-funded bailouts of Fannie and Freddie, and even FDIC.

The problem isn't just subprime loans. It is the entire mortgage market. As home prices fall, defaults will rise sharply - period. And so will the patience of mortgage bondholders. Different classes of mortgage bonds from various risk pools are owned by different central banks, funds, pensions and investors all over the world. Even your pension or 401(k) might have some of these bonds in it.

Perhaps some U.S. government department can make veiled threats to foreign countries to suggest they will suffer unpleasant consequences if their largest holders (central banks and investment funds) don't go along with the plan, but how could it be possible to strong-arm everyone?

What would be prudent and logical is for the banks that sold this toxic waste to buy it back and for a lot of people to go to prison. If they knew about the fraud, they should have to buy the bonds back. The time to look into this is before the shredders have worked their magic - not five years from now.

Those selling the "freeze" have suggested that mortgage-backed securities investors will benefit because they lose more with rising foreclosures. But with fast-depreciating collateral, the last thing investors in mortgage bonds ought to do is put off foreclosures. Rate freezes are at best a tool for delaying the inevitable foreclosures when even the most optimistic forecasters expect home prices to fall. In October, Goldman Sachs issued a report forecasting an incredible 35 to 40 percent drop in California home prices in the coming few years. To minimize losses, a mortgage bondholder would obviously be better off foreclosing on a home before prices plunge.

The goal of the freeze may be to delay bond investors from suing by putting off the big foreclosure wave for several years. But it may also be to stop bond investors from suing. If the investors agreed to loan modifications with the "real" wage and asset information from refinancing borrowers, mortgage originators and bundlers would have an excuse once the foreclosure occurred. They could say, "Fraud? What fraud?! You knew the borrower's real income and asset information later when he refinanced!"

The key is to refinance borrowers whose current loans involved fraud in the origination process. And I assure you it was a minority of borrowers whose loans didn't involve fraud.

The government is trying to accomplish wide-scale refinancing by tricking bond investors, or by tricking U.S. taxpayers. Guess who will foot the bill now that the FHA is entering the fray?

Ultimately, the people in these secret Paulson meetings were probably less worried about saving the mortgage market than with saving themselves. Some might be looking at prison time.

As chief of Goldman Sachs, Paulson was involved, to degrees as yet unrevealed, in the mortgage securitization process during the halcyon days of mortgage fraud from 2004 to 2006.

Paulson became the U.S. Treasury secretary on July 10, 2006, after the extent of the debacle was coming into focus for those in the know. Goldman Sachs achieved recent accolades in the markets for having bet heavily against the housing market, while Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bear Sterns, Merrill Lynch and others got hammered for failing to time the end of the credit bubble.

Goldman Sachs is the only major investment bank in the United States that has emerged as yet unscathed from this debacle. The success of its strategy must have resulted from fairly substantial bets against housing, mortgage banking and related industries, which also means that Goldman Sachs saw this coming at the same time they were bundling and selling these loans.

If a mortgage bond investor sues Goldman Sachs to force the institution to buy back loans, could Paulson be forced to testify as to whether Goldman Sachs knew or had reason to know about fraud in the origination process of the loans it was bundling?

It is truly amazing that right now everyone in the country is deferring to Paulson and the heads of Countrywide, JPMorgan, Bank of America and others as the best group to work out a solution to this problem. No one is talking about the fact that these people created the problem and profited to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars from it.

I suspect that such a group first sat down and tried to figure out how to protect their financial interests and avoid criminal liability. And then when they agreed on the plan, they decided to sell it as "helping working families stay in their homes." That's why these meetings were secret, and reporters and the public weren't invited.

The next time that Paulson is before the Senate Finance Committee, instead of asking, "How much money do you think we should give your banking buddies?" I'd like to see New York Sen. Chuck Schumer ask him what he knew about this staggering fraud at the time he was chief of Goldman Sachs.

The Goldman report in October suggests that rampant investor demand is to blame for origination fraud - even though these investors were misled by high credit ratings from bond rating agencies being paid billions by the U.S. investment banks, like Goldman, that were selling the bundled mortgages.

This logic is like saying shoppers seeking bargain-priced soup encourage the grocery store owner to steal it. I mean, we're talking about criminal fraud here. We are on the cusp of a mammoth financial crisis, and the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury are trying to limit the liability of their banking friends under the guise of trying to help borrowers. At stake is nothing short of the continued existence of the U.S. banking system.

Sean Olender is a San Mateo attorney. Contact us at insight@sfchronicle.com.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/12/09/IN5BTNJ2V.DTL

This article appeared on page C - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle

Mortgage Pain Hits Prudent Borrowers

Fannie Adds More Fees on Loans -- Even for Home Buyers
With Good Credit; 'Jumbo' Rates Resume Upward Trend
By JAMES R. HAGERTY and RUTH SIMON
December 11, 2007; Page B9

Some of the costs of cleaning up the nation's mortgage crisis are beginning to hit innocent bystanders: people who pay their bills on time and avoid excessive debt.

Fannie Mae, the giant government-sponsored mortgage investor, last week raised costs for many borrowers by quietly adding a 0.25% up-front charge on all new mortgages that it buys or guarantees. On a $400,000 mortgage, that would mean an extra $1,000 in fees, almost certain to be passed on to the consumer. Freddie Mac, the other big government-sponsored mortgage investor, is expected to impose a similar fee soon, according to a person familiar with the situation.

The new charge from Fannie Mae adds to the general gloom over the housing market. It comes as mortgage interest rates are heading up again after a recent dip -- as well as increases in mortgage-insurance costs, tougher requirements on down payments and other moves by lenders to ration credit. And last month, Fannie and Freddie imposed surcharges for mortgage borrowers with lower credit scores.

Loan applications have been so slow lately, says Lou Barnes, a mortgage banker in Boulder, Colo., that it feels like "our client base today is limited to people who don't read the newspaper or watch television."

Still, mortgage loans remain available for many people at rates that are attractive by historical standards. People with good credit scores and enough savings to pay a substantial down payment can still get 30-year fixed-rate mortgages of as much as $417,000 for 6.14% on average, according to HSH Associates, a financial-publishing firm in Pompton Plains, N.J.

But so-called jumbo loans -- those above $417,000, the ceiling on mortgages that can be bought or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie -- have become much more expensive in relation to smaller mortgages.

The average rate for a fixed-rate jumbo loan is 7.13%, according to HSH. That is down from a recent high of 7.46% but remains lofty in comparison with "conforming" loans, those that can be sold to Fannie or Freddie. The premium paid for jumbo loans ballooned in August, when many loan investors began shunning mortgages lacking a guarantee from Fannie or Freddie.

Fannie said its new 0.25% fee will apply to loans sold by lenders to Fannie or placed into pools of guaranteed loans backing mortgage securities as of March 1, 2008. Lenders are likely to start adding that fee over the next few weeks because there is often a delay of several months between loan terms being offered to consumers and the sale of a completed loan to Fannie.

In a statement, Fannie said the new fee is needed "to ensure that what we charge aligns with the risk we bear." The National Association of Home Builders labeled the fee "a broad tax on homeownership." More than 40% of all mortgages outstanding are owned or guaranteed by Fannie or Freddie.

The fee is the latest in a series of moves by Fannie and Freddie that raise the cost of credit for some borrowers. Late last month, they imposed surcharges that affect mortgage borrowers who have credit scores below 680, on a standard scale of 300 to 850, and who are borrowing more than 70% of a property's value. For example, someone with a credit score of 650 would pay a surcharge of 1.25% of the loan amount for a mortgage to be sold to Fannie. On a $300,000 loan, that would mean extra fees of $3,750. The fee could be paid in cash or in the form of a higher interest rate than would normally apply.

SPREADING FALLOUT

The mortgage crisis has begun pinching even borrowers with good credit ratings. Here's what is happening:

• Fannie Mae has imposed an extra charge on all new loans it buys or guarantees.

• Mortgage insurers have raised premiums for certain borrowers and tightened standards.

• Borrowers with good credit scores and equity in their homes can still get attractive rates from lenders.Fannie also is raising down-payment requirements for loans it purchases or guarantees in places where house prices are falling, which by some measures is most of the country. In these declining markets, lenders will need to cut by five percentage points the maximum percentage of the home's estimated value that can be financed. For instance, for types of loans that Fannie normally would allow to cover up to 100% of the estimated value, the ceiling now is 95% in declining markets.

Standards continue to tighten in other areas. Lenders that make the largest loans and offer the best rates to borrowers seeking jumbo mortgages want borrowers to show not only a good credit score but also enough reserves to cover as much as three years of mortgage payments and carrying costs, says Melissa Cohn, a mortgage broker in New York. Borrowers taking out interest-only loans are being qualified based on their ability to make the full payment once the interest-only period ends and not just the lower initial payment, she says.

Lenders in recent months have sharply scaled back on loans that don't require the borrower to make a down payment or provide proof of income and savings. The bar for credit scores is rising, too. "Historically, lenders would consider top-tier credit [a score of] 680," says David Soleymani, a mortgage broker in Los Angeles. "Now, many of those lenders want to see a 720," but are rewarding such borrowers with better rates, he says.

Mortgage insurers are also raising their prices and tightening their standards. Mortgage insurance is typically required when a borrower finances more than 80% of a home's value. During the peak of the housing boom, many borrowers got around this requirement by taking out a so-called piggyback mortgage, which combined a mortgage with a home-equity loan or line of credit. But demand for mortgage insurance has climbed as most lenders have stopped promoting piggyback loans.

Triad Guaranty Insurance Corp., Winston-Salem, N.C., this month stopped providing mortgage insurance on option adjustable-rate mortgages, which carry low introductory rates but can lead to a rising loan balance. Triad also said it would no longer provide mortgage insurance for loans that exceed 97% of a home's value. It set a 90% threshold for loans in four states where home prices have been dropping fast: Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. "We want to look for people who have more equity rather than less equity" in their homes, says Triad Vice President Jerry Schwartz.

PMI Group Inc., a Walnut Creek, Calif., mortgage insurer, this fall stopped writing mortgage insurance for borrowers with credit scores below 620 who are financing more than 95% of their home's value. PMI also has boosted prices for most borrowers who have credit scores of 620 and higher with loan-to-value ratios above 95%. Borrowers with credit scores between 620 and 659 who are financing more than 97% of their home's value face the biggest increase. The monthly premium for a $200,000 mortgage will increase by $123 to $283.

Starting next month, MGIC Investment Corp. will no longer insure loans when income and assets aren't fully documented unless borrowers can show they are self-employed and are either buying a home they intend to live in or are refinancing the mortgage on their home without pulling cash out. MGIC also will no longer insure loans in California and Florida where the borrower has less than 5% equity and is raising premiums for certain borrowers. "This is the first significant price change since the mid-1980s," says Michael Zimmerman, MGIC's vice president of investor relations.

With standards tightening, some borrowers who might previously have looked for a subprime mortgage or 100% financing are turning to loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration, which for a fee insures mortgages as much as $362,790. Peter Lansing, a mortgage banker in Denver, says that FHA loans accounted for more than half of his business last month, compared with less than 10% a year ago.

Write to James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com and Ruth Simon at ruth.simon@wsj.com

Economy Calls for a Big Rate Cut

Newsmax.com

I have just returned from a week talking with bankers in England and in Switzerland.

In Basel, I had an illuminating — but “off-the-record” — interview with the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the important research and coordination working body for the world’s Central Bankers.

Although the initial positions presented by those whom I visited were to some degree less bearish than my own, I have to say that their confidential, final views began to approach my own, albeit they were seasoned with a hope that things would not unwind so drastically.

In summary, I picked up a certain sense of quiet pessimism, more in line with my own views.

Now back home in the United States, I saw The Wall Street Journal front page headline, “U.S. Mortgage Crisis Rivals S&L Meltdown.”

As The Wall Street Journal article points out, there have been five major debt crises since World War II.

They started in 1982 with the bank lending crisis, of which I warned in a speech in the House of Commons in 1980. It amounted to $55 billion, or 1.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

This was followed by the Savings and Loan crisis. That amounted to $189 billion, or 3.2 percent of the then-GDP, but ominously lasted almost nine years, from 1986 to 1995.

The Japanese bank-lending crisis totaled $263 billion, or 7 percent of GDP, and lasted 11 years, from 1992 to 2003. It is most important to realize that Japan has still not yet recovered from the subsequent economic slump, triggered by a revaluation of its currency.

In 2000 to 2003, we experienced what became known as the dot-com bust. It was only $93 billion, a tiny 0.9 percent of GDP, but nevertheless a painful memory for many investors.

Today, the subprime mortgage crisis is estimated to be some $150 to $400 billion. That makes it 1 to 3 percent of GDP.

However, unlike the previous bank crises, our present subprime crisis is still running and looking worse by the day.

Indeed, only today, UBS – the largest money manager in the world – announced a second hit, this time for $10 billion.

This despite the fact that UBS has obtained a cash infusion. Pretty soon you’re talking real money, even for a major Swiss bank.

Today, Bank of America said it is closing its $12 billion money market fund because of losses in structured investment vehicles (SIVs)! Investors will receive less than par — from a money market!

When I warned our readers to be wary of money market funds that had invested in SIVs, some readers thought I was being unnecessarily alarmist. I was merely trying to warn our readers.

Looking at The Wall Street Journal article, I am struck not by the relatively small percentage of comparative GDP but by both the absolute size and complexity of the “toxic waste” within the subprime crisis and by the fact that it is both worldwide and held by unrelated investors, including Norwegian townships within the Arctic Circle!

This is causing a very dangerous credit crisis, affecting all but the most prime borrowers.

In addition, the size of our present problem, estimated at $150 to 400 billion, is still growing.

I believe that President Bush’s idea to freeze certain qualifying ARM re-sets is not an order but merely a suggestion! I fear that it will not work and that, by the time our subprime crisis is over, it will be recorded to have been well over the highest estimate of 3 percent of GDP.

In short I see daily, growing evidence that we are entering a recession. Those who disagree are growing increasingly desperate in their efforts to drown out that view and deny the opportunity to express it.

Not that I am the only economist to believe we are fast entering a recession. Far from it — at least for now!

But, by denying the free expression of opinion, our government risks making decision based upon false assumptions.

For instance, the Fed is due to make a crucial interest rate decision Tuesday.

The general expectation is for a quarter to a half-point cut. Indeed, the recent headline inflation number — without looking at the continued decline of manufacturing and construction jobs, inside the figures — may well give our Fed the excuse to lower rates by only a quarter of a point.

Here it is interesting to note that last week, both the British and the Canadians dropped their rates by a quarter-point. Sadly and despite calls from grass roots, the European Central Bank kept its Euro rate on hold.

I have often said that, depending upon the phase of the economic cycle and the shape and level of the yield curve, it can take between nine and 24 months for a Fed rate change to gain economic traction.

To divert our pending economic recession from morphing into a severe recession or worse will require a Fed interest rate cut to 1 percent or less. In saying this, I agree with bond fund manager Bill Gross of Pimco.

Even a half-point rate cut tomorrow will prove to be far too little and too late to meet the hopes of my friends the English and Swiss bankers, that a catastrophy will be avoided.

If the Fed does cut its key rates by half a point tomorrow, stock markets can be expected to rise. It will be a false dawn.

Beware of more 'hidden' subprime losses

HERB GREENBERG
Commentary: Report says Washington Mutual, Countrywide most vulnerable
By Herb Greenberg, MarketWatch
Last update: 8:10 p.m. EST Dec. 9, 2007Print E-mail RSS Disable Live Quotes

This column first was published in the weekend edition of The Wall Street Journal.

SAN DIEGO (MarketWatch) -- The reality of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, or GAAP, is that they give companies just enough rope to hang themselves and their investors, if they so please. Much of GAAP is so subjective that you could drive side-by-side snow plows through the gray areas.

That is something to keep in mind if, with the latest wave of write-offs, you believe it is time to start bargain hunting among the most beaten-down financial-services companies tied to the mortgage blowup. The time may very well be right, but a recent report by Gradient Analytics warns that financial-reporting practices of some of these companies yesterday and today could still come back to bite investors tomorrow.

Gradient, a Scottsdale, Ariz., research firm that caters to mutual funds and hedge funds, was early to spot accounting issues at Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. among others, and their stocks subsequently tumbled.

"I think for a number of years they played games," Donn Vickrey, a former accounting professor who co-founded and is now editor-in-chief of Gradient, says about the financial-services companies.

By "playing games" he means a tendency during the mortgage boom "to report numbers that were artificially high." There were a variety of ways to do that, all of them completely legitimate and blessed by the gods of financial accounting rules otherwise known as the Financial Accounting Standards Board.

One of the most-popular tactics was front-loading income and cash flows through what is known as "gain on sale" accounting, as loans were packaged and sold to other investors. The amount recognized largely reflected what the company expects to receive at some point in the future, based on predictions of such things as delinquencies, prepayments and interest rates. It is totally discretionary; the more conservative the predictions, the lower the gain.

Just as companies may have been reporting numbers that were too high, Vickrey believes some might now be reporting losses and charges that are artificially low, hoping they will somehow get bailed out before the situation worsens.

This is being done, he believes, by such things as deferring recognition of losses; transferring mortgages that are likely to default from one part of the balance sheet to another, where management has more discretion in determining the seriousness of the loss; somehow concealing "the aftereffects" of aggressive gain-on-sale accounting, and reliance on interest income from negatively amortized mortgages those in which the amount owed rises if payments don't cover all the interest due, which in this environment at best appears dicey.

Much of this, he says, involves meeting "the bare minimum letter of GAAP, but not adhering to the spirit of GAAP."

Among the five biggest companies involved in mortgage securities, Gradient believes Washington Mutual Inc. have been the most aggressive, with Washington Mutual edging out Countrywide as having "the most risk for a material misstatement." Washington Mutual didn't respond to requests for comment.

Countrywide said its accounting is appropriate and it has taken steps to reduce risk.

Gradient warns that Washington Mutual may not be properly valuing loans it is holding for investment purposes. As a result, reserves for future losses may be too low.

While the company boosted its loss provision in the third quarter, the Gradient report says "the increase appears to be too little too late as the allowance for loan losses has failed to keep pace with the increase in nonperforming loans."

Meanwhile, in recent years, interest from negatively amortized mortgages leapt as a percentage of interest income to 7.2% for the first nine months of this year from 1.8% in the same period two years ago. Not only is that income unsustainable, Gradient says, but more prone to write-offs, especially if there are increased delinquencies and defaults.

Then there's the high level of gain-on-sale income in prior years "that may signal additional risks to come."

Washington Mutual, the report says, ranked second behind only Countrywide in terms of its reliance on gain-on-sale. Countrywide has been on Gradient's screen for four years because of a variety of earnings-quality issues.

As with Washington Mutual, Gradient now wonders whether there could be "hidden losses" among loans held by Countrywide for investment. While reserves as a percentage of nonperforming loans have been rising, hitting 63.4% as of Sept. 30, Gradient says they still lag behind peers, including Washington Mutual. Countrywide disagrees, and says that "when all of the relevant factors are considered, our 'reserves' are comparable to our competitors."

Like Washington Mutual, Gradient says Countrywide suffers from "low quality income" related to negative-amortized loans. "Unfortunately," the report says, in trying to determine its exposure, "Countrywide does not provide as much detail as other firms we surveyed."

While the stocks of these companies and others have fallen considerably, Vickrey believes "a lot remains to be revealed." Can't wait.

Herb Greenberg is senior columnist for MarketWatch and contributor to CNBC television based in San Diego.

U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Rise to 20-Year High (Update1)

By Kathleen M. Howley

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans who fell behind on their mortgage payments rose to a 20-year high in the third quarter as borrowers were unable to refinance or sell their homes.

The share of all home loans with payments more than 30 days late, including prime and fixed-rate loans, rose to a seasonally adjusted 5.59 percent, the highest since 1986, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report today. New foreclosures hit an all-time high for a second consecutive quarter.

The surge in foreclosures is expanding the inventory of unsold homes and contributing to the decline in home prices. The National Association of Realtors is forecasting new home sales will drop 13 percent in 2008. About 40 percent of lenders have increased their standards for the most creditworthy borrowers to qualify for a so-called prime loan, according to a Federal Reserve study in October.

``These are the first numbers we've seen that combine the meltdown of the credit markets with the drop in home prices,'' said Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics for the Washington-based bankers trade group.

President George W. Bush and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson plan to announce a proposal today to freeze some subprime mortgages to stop a wave of foreclosures that has cut prices and demand for houses.

California, Florida Lead

One in every five adjustable-rate subprime loans had late payments in the quarter, a number that excludes the one of every 10 already in foreclosure, the trade group said. Foreclosures started on all types of mortgages rose to an all-time high of 0.78 percent from 0.65 percent.

In the quarter, 3.12 percent of prime borrowers made their mortgage payments at least 30 days late, up from 2.73 percent in the second quarter, the report said. The subprime share of late payments rose to 16.3 percent from 14.8 percent.

The numbers were driven by California, the U.S.'s largest state, and Florida, Brinkmann said. The two states had 36.4 percent of all of the nation's prime adjustable-rate loans and had 42.4 percent of new foreclosures during the quarter, he said. They had 28.1 percent of subprime adjustable mortgages and 33.7 percent of foreclosure starts for that type of loan.

That is more than double the 15 percent who reported boosting requirements in July, the prior survey. Sixty percent of banks said they tightened qualifications for so-called non- traditional mortgages such as interest-only loans, the Fed said.

The Mortgage Bankers report is based on a survey of 45.4 million loans by mortgage companies, commercial banks, thrifts, credit unions and other financial institutions.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: December 6, 2007 10:31 EST

US property risks

Published: December 2 2007 19:28 | Last updated: December 2 2007 19:28

The subprime residential lending crash has dealt the market a body blow. But its aftershocks could hit lenders with a second real estate-related punch, if the highly leveraged commercial property market succumbs to the contagion.

Banks have significantly tightened their lending standards this year, and commercial real estate has felt the effects particularly quickly. Commercial mortgage-backed security issues, which finance about half of deals and were a key driver of the recent market boom, dropped 84 per cent in October from a record high of $38.5bn in March. At one point, some loans actually exceeded property values. Now, typical loan-to-value ratios have retreated to about 70 per cent – when deals are completed at all.

Lenders have, appropriately, returned to their senses. But some may have changed from partygoer to policeman too late. Tough new standards will not reduce risk on ambitious past financings. US banks could see $11bn to $78bn of commercial real estate losses if the lending crisis spreads, according to Goldman Sachs. Each lender’s risk would depend on its mix of whole loans and CMBS, as well as newer, riskier commercial real estate collateralised debt obligations and even riskier B-note or mezzanine debt. Those more speculative lending markets were bursting at the seams with demand this year. But they have never been tested by a serious downturn.

The commercial property sector is not likely to suffer the huge falls experienced by the worst-hit residential markets – prices are more likely to correct by, say, 10 per cent to 15 per cent. Supply is near its tightest point in decades. And though total US real estate debt has skyrocketed to $14,000bn, commercial leverage has expanded far more slowly than residential debt.

But certain factors facing commercial tenants compound the threat. Store, hotel and factory owners are holding their breath as the economy struggles under the weight of the housing crisis. Even the hot Manhattan office market has seen almost 10,000 Wall Street lay-offs this year. Given banks’ astronomical losses in subprime lending, a modest slide in commercial property values may be the best they can hope for.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

Housing Slump's Third Year to Be `Deepest' Since WWII (Update1)

By Dan Levy and Brian Louis

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- As the U.S. housing slump enters its third year, there is no sign of dawn in the darkness that is paralyzing home building, home buying and home lending.

Standard & Poor's 15-member Supercomposite Homebuilding Index tumbled 62 percent this year as of yesterday, the largest drop since the benchmark was started in 1995. The companies have lost about $35 billion of market value.

The outlook is bleak with new home sales projected to fall 13 percent in 2008, according to estimates from the National Association of Realtors in Chicago, even as interest rates drop. Losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest U.S. providers of mortgage financing, may restrict the availability of home loans, and chief executive officers at D.R. Horton Inc. and Centex Corp. expect another tough year.

``This looks like it's going to be the deepest correction of any housing correction since World War II, and the question really is, `What's the duration, how long will it be?''' Centex CEO Timothy Eller said at a JPMorgan Chase & Co. conference in Las Vegas on Nov. 27.

The decline in the S&P homebuilding index has pushed the measure to March 2003 levels, with companies including Centex and Pulte Homes Inc. falling more than 65 percent in composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Credit Protection Costs

Total new home sales peaked in July 2005 and have declined for 19 of the last 28 months through October, according to Commerce Department data. Existing home sales peaked in September 2005. The median price for a new home dropped 13 percent in October, the most since 1970, and the annual sales rate for new homes in September was the lowest in almost 12 years.

Bond investors have sought more protection against homebuilders defaulting on debt as revenue and cash flow have declined. Credit protection costs reached 12-month highs in the week ended Nov. 21 for Miami-based Lennar Corp., Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based Pulte, Dallas-based Centex and Fort Worth, Texas-based D.R. Horton, the four largest U.S. builders by revenue; as well as Calabasas, California-based Ryland Group Inc., a builder in 28 U.S. markets, and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. of Red Bank, New Jersey, the biggest builder in that state.

`Bankruptcy Risks'

Credit default swap spreads climbed last week by as much as 335 basis points for builders with investment-grade ratings and by an average 209 basis points for those with junk ratings, according to CreditSights Inc., a New York-based research firm. Credit default swaps are contracts to protect bondholders against default. An increase indicates worsening perceptions for credit quality.

``If we talked two weeks ago, I'd say there wasn't much more downside, but the market is acting like there's still a lot more to go,'' said James Wilson, an analyst who follows home builders at San Francisco-based JMP Securities LLC.

Beazer Homes USA Inc., the Atlanta-based homebuilder under investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and Hovnanian are ``bankruptcy risks,'' Wilson said. Those companies have too much debt and are exposed to slumping housing markets in Florida and Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, he said.

Beazer CEO Ian McCarthy said at this week's conference in Las Vegas that 2008 ``is going to be another tough year.'' The company has a secured credit line of $500 million, he said.

``The company is really looking to make sure its balance sheet and its credit position is strong as we go through this tough time,'' McCarthy said. The company also has agreements ``with our bankers and with our secured credit lenders'' that will ``put us in good stead going forward.''

Worse 2008?

Hovnanian CEO Ara Hovnanian said at the JPMorgan conference that the company has a ``better financial structure than we've ever had.'' Hovnanian's bonds don't start coming due until 2010 and 2012, ``giving us plenty of breathing room,'' he said.

``We're experienced operators, been around for almost 50 years,'' Hovnanian said. ``We will clearly persevere and thrive in the eventual upturn as we have after every cycle.''

Many homebuilding executives at the conference said they expect the slump to last through 2008.

Next year ``is going to be worse than '07 for us and for the industry in general,'' said Donald Tomnitz, D.R. Horton's CEO.

At least three closely held companies filed for bankruptcy protection in the past month, including Fort Lauderdale, Florida-based Levitt and Sons LLC, the 1949 pioneer of planned suburbs with Levittown on New York's Long Island. Tousa Inc. of Hollywood, Florida, which has lost 99 percent of its stock market value this year, said this month it was considering filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Tousa's Strategy

Tousa acquired 22,000 home sites in Florida through a joint venture in August 2005, when the housing market was close to its peak. Florida accounted for five of the top 25 U.S. metropolitan areas with the highest foreclosure rates this year through Sept. 30, according to RealtyTrac Inc. The Irvine, California-based seller of foreclosure data has a database of more than 1 million U.S. properties.

The New York Stock Exchange suspended trading in Tousa on Nov. 19 because the average closing price was less than $1 for 30 straight trading days. Tousa last traded at 8 cents, down from a seven-year high of $30 in August 2005.

Standard Pacific Corp., based in Irvine, California, is the worst performer in the S&P homebuilding index, dropping 89 percent. Home sales in California, the company's largest source of revenue, fell 40 percent and median prices for existing homes slid 9.9 percent in October, data compiled by the California Association of Realtors show.

Housing Glut

A housing rebound is unlikely, as about 1 million adjustable loans made to subprime borrowers, those with weak or incomplete credit histories, are scheduled to reset at a higher rate in 2008, according to RealtyTrac.

That may put many homeowners at risk of foreclosure and lower the value of neighboring houses, said Rick Sharga, vice president of marketing at RealtyTrac. About 1.3 million subprime mortgages will be in foreclosure by September 2009, including actions already under way, according to estimates from New York- based analysts at Credit Suisse Group.

``There is just no quick fix, including further rate cuts, to stabilize the current weakness in the housing market,'' said CreditSights analysts Frank Lee and Sarah Rowin in a Nov. 23 report to clients.

Discounted Prices

Builders must contend with a glut of existing homes on the market. There's an almost 11-month supply of unsold existing homes, the highest in more than eight years, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.

The decline in the market for existing homes is lagging ``far behind'' the new home market, and resale prices have only started to erode, said Citigroup Inc. analyst Stephen Kim in a Nov. 23 report.

``We have never before seen how a belated dropoff in existing home prices will affect already discounted prices for new homes, but it is difficult to be optimistic here,'' Kim wrote.

Citigroup cut its rating on Lennar, Centex, Los Angeles- based KB Home, D.R. Horton, Ryland, Pulte and Standard Pacific to ``hold'' from ``buy.'' Meritage Homes Corp. in Scottsdale, Arizona, was reduced to ``sell'' from ``hold.''

Cash flow will assume even greater importance as homebuilders owe $875 million in debt payments in 2008 and then about $1.6 billion in 2009 and 2010, data compiled by CreditSights show.

`Hard Year'

Potential legal costs also may hurt the builders, said Lee of CreditSights. D.R. Horton, Hovnanian and Reston, Virginia- based NVR Inc. are being sued by consumers who said they were coerced into taking loans from the company's mortgage units. The top 10 builders made $2.1 billion from providing financial services such as mortgages and title insurance last year, according to data compiled by UBS AG.

Investigations of builders may also weigh on the companies. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development is examining whether builders received kickbacks when selling property. Pulte and KB Home are among six homebuilders that agreed last month to pay a total of $1.4 million to settle federal probes into whether they accepted rebates from insurers for referrals when selling homes.

New York, Ohio and at least six other states are investigating the mortgage industry, including whether appraisers, mortgage brokers and lenders may have inflated home values. Resolving the complaints ``could run into the millions or billions'' of dollars, CreditSights's Lee said.

``There will be some bankruptcies, some consolidations, some private equity plays,'' said Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the University of California's Fisher School of Real Estate and Urban Economics in Berkeley. ``It's going to be another hard year.''

U.S. Economy: Confidence Drops More Than Predicted (Update2)

By Shobhana Chandra and Bob Willis

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence fell more than forecast in November as Americans struggled with surging fuel costs and falling home prices.

The Conference Board's confidence index decreased to 87.3, the lowest level since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the New York-based group said today. House values dropped 4.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the most since records began in 1988, S&P/Case-Shiller reported separately today.

The gloomier mood increases the likelihood that holiday sales, which account for a fifth of retailers' yearly revenue, will be disappointing. Federal Reserve policy makers and private economists have cut growth forecasts as the housing slump enters its third year and jeopardizes consumer spending.

``This is a strong indication that consumers are going to pull back sharply and growth is going to be very weak,'' said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. ``The message to the Fed should be that they need to keep cutting rates.''

October's confidence reading was revised down to 95.2, from a previously reported 95.6. None of the 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted the size of the decline. The median forecast was 91.

Stocks Jump

Treasury securities remained lower and stock prices rose following the reports as investors focused on news that Citigroup Inc. will receive a cash infusion from Abu Dhabi's government. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 124 points, or 1 percent, at 2:59 p.m. in New York.

Property prices may keep sliding in coming months as slowing sales and rising foreclosures aggravate the glut of unsold homes, economists said.

The housing recession will drive down property values by $1.2 trillion next year and slash tax revenue by more than $6.6 billion, according to a report issued today by the U.S. Conference of Mayors. The 361 largest U.S. cities will experience a combined loss of $166 billion in economic growth, led by $10.4 billion in the New York-Northern New Jersey area, according to the study.

``We do have an immediate crisis,'' Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, said in an interview. ``It might push this country into recession.''

Other Reports

Lower property values make it harder for owners to tap home equity, while gasoline at more than $3 a gallon and higher home- heating bills also sour Americans' mood. A report last week showed the Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment index fell this month to a two-year low.

Compared with other sentiment gauges, the Conference Board's index tends to be more influenced by attitudes about the state of the labor market, economists said.

An average of 330,000 workers filed first-time claims for jobless benefits per week in November, up from 306,000 as recently as July. The increase suggests firings are mounting as businesses try to cut costs.

Fed policy makers are counting on wage gains to help Americans maintain spending, according to the minutes of their Oct. 31 meeting. Still, there was a risk falling home prices could ``further sap consumer confidence.''

Expectations Slump

The Conference Board's measure of present conditions fell to 115.4 from 118 the prior month. The gauge of expectations for the next six months decreased to 68.7, the lowest since March 2003, from 80.

Today's report showed the share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful retreated to 23.2 percent in November from 24.1 percent the prior month. The proportion of people who said jobs are hard to get also decreased to 21.3 percent from 22.8 percent.

The proportion of people who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months dropped to 18.7 percent from 19.9 percent. The share expecting more jobs decreased to 10.8 percent from 13.3 percent.

The number of people planning to buy a home or an automobile within the next six months fell.

``The heating bills are a big worry, but behind that is also the worry that jobs might be in jeopardy,'' Kenneth Goldstein, a Conference Board economist, said in an interview.

Retail Profits

Retailers are bracing for a slowdown through the holidays and into 2008. Target Corp., the second-biggest U.S. discounter, last week reported its first profit decline in two years, and said it expects slowing sales growth through the first quarter.

The National Retail Federation this week maintained its forecast that combined sales for November and December will show the smallest increase in five years even after purchases were stronger than forecast after the Thanksgiving holiday. Americans spent less per person even as more went shopping, the group said.

``Elevated energy costs and the anticipation of further increases continues to impact Americans' ability to spend on discretionary projects,'' Robert Niblock, chief executive officer of Lowe's Cos., the second-largest home improvement retailer, said on a conference call last week. ``Access to mortgage financing is a concern we'll continue to watch.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 27, 2007 15:01 EST

S&P: 3Q Home Prices Fall by 4.5 Percent

By J.W. Elphinstone, AP Business Writer
Tuesday November 27, 9:52 am ET

NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. home prices fell 4.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the sharpest drop since Standard & Poor's began its nationwide housing index in 1987 and another sign that the housing slump is far from over, the research group said Tuesday .

The index also showed that prices fell 1.7 percent from the previous three-month period, the largest quarter-to-quarter decline in the index's history.

The S&P/Case-Schiller quarterly index tracks prices of existing single-family homes across the nation compared with a year earlier.

A separate index that covers 20 U.S. metropolitan areas dropped 4.9 percent in September from a year earlier, with 15 metro areas posting declines. Only five metro areas -- Atlanta, Charlotte, N.C., Dallas, Portland, Ore., and Seattle -- showed an increase in prices, but S&P noted that the pace of the rise is decelerating.

Tampa and Miami led the index with the lowest year-over-year declines at 11.1 percent and 10 percent, respectively. It also showed drops in San Diego of 9.6 percent; Detroit, 9.6 percent; Las Vegas, 9 percent; Phoenix, 8.8 percent; and Los Angeles, 7 percent.

The S&P's 10-area index decreased 5.5 percent in September from the previous year.

Last week, the National Association of Realtors said that sales of existing homes fell in 46 states in the third quarter. However, the trade group said home prices rose in 93 of the 150 metropolitan areas surveyed.

Home Sales May Drop, Durable Orders Stall: U.S. Economy Preview

By Shobhana Chandra

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. home sales fell in October to the lowest in at least eight years and business spending stalled as the real-estate slump rippled through the economy, economists said before reports this week.

Total purchases of new and existing homes fell 1 percent to an annual pace of 5.75 million, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Orders for long- lasting goods were little changed following the biggest back-to- back declines in at least 15 years, a separate report may show.

The housing recession will persist into 2008 as banks tighten lending rules, foreclosures rise and prospective buyers wait for further price declines, economists said. Business and consumer spending are likely to cool this quarter, leading to a deceleration in growth.

``The reports could paint a soft picture at the start of the fourth quarter,'' said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Holdings Inc. in New York. ``The fundamentals in the housing sector are still weak with regards to demand and supply. On the manufacturing side, things aren't overly optimistic either.''

The National Association of Realtors is scheduled to report sales of existing homes on Nov. 28. Economists in the survey estimate that resales fell to a 5 million annual rate last month, the lowest level since comparable records began in 1999.

New-home sales, due from the Commerce Department a day later, slipped to a 750,000 pace, according to the survey median. Purchases were at an 11-year low 735,000 rate in August.

Existing-home sales account for about 85 percent of the market, and purchases of new homes make up the rest.

Timelier Gauge

New-home purchases are considered a timelier indicator because they are based on contract signings, while existing home sales are calculated when a contract closes, usually a month or two later.

D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder, on Nov. 20 reported a fiscal fourth-quarter loss and its worst annual results in at least a decade.

Next year will be ``more difficult'' than 2007, Donald Tomnitz, chief executive officer of D.R. Horton, said on a conference call. ``There's less volume, and the volume that is there is demanding better pricing.''

Home prices in 20 metropolitan areas probably dropped 5 percent in the 12 months to September, the most since record keeping began in 2001, a report from Standard & Poor's/Case- Shiller Nov. 27 is forecast to show.

Consumer Headwinds

Falling property values combined with rising fuel costs and reduced access to credit suggest consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, will slow.

Commerce Department figures due Nov. 30 may show spending grew 0.3 percent in October for a second month, according the survey median. Spending adjusted for inflation, the gauge used to calculate economic growth, was probably little changed, economists said.

Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among banks that have lowered growth forecasts in recent weeks, in part because of a projected slowdown in consumer spending. The economy is likely to grow at less than a 1 percent annual pace this quarter and next, according to economists at Bank of America.

Such an outcome would mark a sharp slowdown from the previous three months. Revised figures from the Commerce Department on Nov. 29 are forecast to show that gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 4.9 percent from July through September, a percentage point more than the government estimated last month and the most in four years.

Work Off Inventories

A bigger jump in inventories than previously estimated will contribute to the revision, economists said. The need to work off some of those stockpiles this quarter will have a hand in the projected growth deceleration.

The Nov. 28 Commerce Department report on orders for durable goods, those made to last at least several years, may show that business investment in new equipment has also slackened, economists said.

Federal Reserve policy makers reduced their growth forecasts when they last met on Oct. 31, according to meeting minutes released last week. Central bankers projected the economy would grow between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent in 2008, ``notably below'' their last forecast issued in July, the minutes said.

Investors almost universally expect strains in financial markets and the slowdown in growth will cause the Fed to again lower the target on the benchmark interest rate when policy makers next meet on Dec. 11.



Bloomberg Survey

Date Time Period Indicator BN Survey
Prior
11/27 10:00 Nov. Confidence-Conf. Board 91.0 95.6
11/28 8:30 Oct. Durable Goods Orders 0.0% -1.7%
11/28 10:00 Oct. Home Resales 5.00M 5.04M
11/29 8:30 3Q P GDP Price Index 0.8% 0.8%
11/29 8:30 3Q P Gross Domestic Product 4.9% 3.9%
11/29 8:30 11/24 Initial Jobless Claims 330K 330K
11/29 8:30 11/17 Continuing Claims 2575K 2566K
11/29 10:00 Oct. New Home Sales 750,000 770,000
11/30 8:30 Oct. Personal Income 0.4% 0.4%
11/30 8:30 Oct. Personal Spending 0.3% 0.3%
11/30 10:00 Nov. Chicago Purchasers 50.5 49.7
11/30 10:00 Oct. Construction Spending -0.3% 0.3%

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 25, 2007 10:03 EST

Mortgage Failures Could Create Nightmare

Saturday November 24, 12:02 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer

New Wave of Mortgage Failures Could Create a Nightmare Economic Scenario

NEW YORK (AP) -- When Domenico Colombo saw that his monthly mortgage payment was about to balloon by 30 percent, he had a clear picture of how bad it could get.
His payment was scheduled to surge by an extra $1,500 in December. With his daughter headed to college next fall and tuition to be paid, he feared ending up like so many neighbors in Ft. Lauderdale, Fla., who defaulted on their mortgages and whose homes are now in foreclosure and sporting "For Sale" signs.

Colombo did manage to renegotiate a new fixed interest rate loan with his bank, and now believes he'll be OK -- but the future is less certain for the rest of us.

In the months ahead, millions of other adjustable-rate mortgages like Colombo's will reset, giving them a higher interest rate as required by the loan agreements and leaving many homeowners unable to make their payments. Soaring mortgage default rates this year already have shaken major financial institutions and the fallout from more of them, some experts say, could spread from those already battered banks into the general economy.

The worst-case scenario is anyone's guess, but some believe it could become very bad.

"We haven't faced a downturn like this since the Depression," said Bill Gross, chief investment officer of PIMCO, the world's biggest bond fund. He's not suggesting anything like those terrible times -- but, as an expert on the global credit crisis, he speaks with authority.

"Its effect on consumption, its effect on future lending attitudes, could bring us close to the zero line in terms of economic growth," he said. "It does keep me up at night."

Some 2 million homeowners hold $600 billion of subprime adjustable-rate mortgage loans, known as ARMs, that are due to reset at higher amounts during the next eight months. Subprime loans are those made to people with poor credit. Not all these mortgages are in trouble, but homeowners who default or fall behind on payments could cause an economic shock of a type never seen before.

Some of the nation's leading economic minds lay out a scenario that is frightening. Not only would the next wave of the mortgage crisis force people out of their homes, it might also spiral throughout the economy.

The already severe housing slump would be exacerbated by even more empty homes on the market, causing prices to plunge by up to 40 percent in once-hot real estate spots such as California, Nevada and Florida. Builders like Chicago's Neumann Homes, which filed for bankruptcy protection this month, could go under. The top 10 global banks, which repackage loans into exotic securities such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, could suffer far greater write-offs than the $75 billion already taken this year.

Massive job losses would curtail consumer spending that makes up two-thirds of the economy. The Labor Department estimates almost 100,000 financial services jobs related to credit and lending in the U.S. have already been lost, from local bank loan officers to traders dealing in mortgage-backed securities. Thousands of Americans who work in the housing industry could find themselves on the dole. And there's no telling how that would affect car dealers, retailers and others dependent on consumer paychecks.

Based on historical models, zero growth in the U.S. gross domestic product would take the current unemployment rate to 6.4 percent. That would wipe out about 3 million jobs from the economy, according to the Washington-based Economic Policy Institute.

By comparison, in the last big downturn between 2001-03 some 2 million jobs were lost, according to the Labor Department. The dot-com bust early this decade decimated the technology sector, while the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks hurt the transportation and allied industries. Economists said the country was officially in recession from March to November of 2001, but the aftermath stretched to 2003.

There is increasing evidence that another downturn has begun.

Borrowers who took out loans in the first six months of this year are already falling behind on their payments faster than those who took out loans in 2006, according to a report from Arlington, Va.-based investment bank Friedman, Billings Ramsey. That's making it even harder for would-be buyers to get new mortgages -- a frightening prospect for home builders with projects going begging on the market, and for homeowners desperate to unload property to avoid defaulting on their loans.

Meanwhile, the number of U.S. homes in foreclosure is expected to keep soaring after more than doubling during the third quarter from a year earlier, to 446,726 homes nationwide, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc. That's one foreclosure filing for every 196 households in the nation, a 34 percent jump from just three months earlier.

Such data suggests more Americans could lose their homes than ever before, and those in peril are people who never thought they'd welsh on a mortgage payment. They come from a broad swath -- teachers, pharmacists, and civil servants who were lured by enticing mortgage terms.

Some homebuyers gambled on interest-only loans. The mortgages, which allowed buyers to pay just interest at a low rate for two years, were too good to pass up. But with that initial term now expiring, many homeowners find they can't make the payments. The hopes that went along with those mortgages -- that they'd be able to refinance because the equity in their homes would appreciate -- have been dashed as home prices skidded across the country.

"It's been said a lot of people have been using their homes as ATM machines," said Thomas Lawler, a former official at mortgage lender Fannie Mae who is now a private housing and finance consultant. "The risk has a lot of tentacles."

This example illustrates the distress many homeowners are in or will find themselves in: A subprime adjustable-rate mortgage on a $400,000 home could have payments of about $2,200 a month, with borrowers paying 6.5 percent, interest only. When the teaser period expires, that payment becomes $4,000, with the homeowner paying 12 percent and now having to come up with principal as well as interest.

Minneapolis resident Chad Raskovich found himself in a such a situation. He hoped -- it turned out, in vain -- to gain more equity in his home and that a strong record of payments would enable him to secure a better loan later on.

"It's not just me, it's a lot of people I know. The housing market in the Twin Cities has dramatically changed for the worse in the years since I purchased my home. Now we're just looking for a solution," he said.

Colombo, who lives in the planned community of Weston just outside Ft. Lauderdale, said the reset on his home would have "destroyed' his financial situation. He went to Mortgage Repair Center, one of hundreds of debt counselors trying to bail out desperate homeowners, to work with his lender.

"But many people in my neighborhood didn't get help, and some have literally just walked away from their homes," said Colombo. "There are over 133,000 homes on the market in Broward-Miami-Dade counties, and some of them were actually abandoned. People in this situation don't like to talk about it, and end up getting hurt because they don't."

Many Americans are unaware that a borrower defaulting on a loan can have an impact on everyone else's well-being and that of the nation. After all, the amount of mortgages due to reset is just a fraction of the United States' $14 trillion economy.

But the series of plunges that Wall Street has suffered in past months prove that no one is immune when mortgages turn sour.

Today's financial system is interconnected: Mortgages are sold to investment firms, which then slice them up and package them as securities based on risk. Then hedge and pension funds buy up such investments.

When home prices kept rising, these were lucrative assets to own. But the ongoing collapse in housing prices has set off a chain reaction: Lenders are tightening their standards, borrowers are having a harder time refinancing loans and the securities that underpin them are in jeopardy.

This has resulted in more than $500 billion of potentially worthless paper on the balance sheets of the biggest global banks -- losses that could spill into the huge pension and mutual funds that also invest in these securities and that the average worker or investor expects to depend on.

There's more pain left for Wall Street: "We're nowhere close to the end of the collapse," said Mark Patterson, chairman and co-founder of MatlinPatterson Global Advisors, a hedge fund that specializes in distressed funds.

"I just assumed banks could stomach these kind of losses," said Wendy Talbot, an advertising executive when asked about the subprime crisis outside of a Charles Schwab branch in New York. "I guess you don't really pay attention to things until your forced to. ... You put out of your mind the worst things that can happen."

The subprime wreckage could dwarf the nation's last big banking crisis -- the failure of more than 1,000 savings and loans in the 1980s. The biggest difference is that problems with S&Ls were largely contained, and the government was able to rescue them through a $125 billion bailout.

But this situation is far more widespread, which some experts say makes it more difficult to rein in.

"What really makes this a doomsday scenario is where would you even start with a bailout?" housing consultant Lawler asked.

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., a key member of Senate finance and banking committees, said borrowers are the ones who need relief. The playbook to bail out the economy would not be applied to the banks and mortgage originators, but money could be funneled through non-profit organizations to homeowners that need help, he said in an interview with The Associated Press.

"There is a worst-case scenario because housing is the linchpin of our economy, and more foreclosures make prices go down, that creates more foreclosures, and creates a vicious cycle," Schumer said. "You add that to the other weakness in the economy -- on one end is the home sector and the other is the financial sector -- and it could create a real problem."

He also believes Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should do more to help the economy. Bernanke said in recent comments he has no direct plans to bail out the mortgage industry, but to instead offer relief through cheap interest rates and further liquidity injections into the banking system.

There's also been talk of letting government-backed lenders like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy mortgages of as much as $1 million from lenders, pay the government a fee for guaranteeing them and then turn them into securities to be sold to investors. This would extend the government's support, and its exposure, to the mortgage market to help alleviate stress.

Either way, the impact of a fresh round of subprime losses remains of paramount concern to economists -- especially since there's little certainty about how it would ripple through the U.S. economy.

"We all know that more hits from these subprime loans are coming, but are having a devil of a time figuring out how it will happen or how to stop it," said Lawler, who was once chief economist for Fannie Mae.

"We've never been in this situation before."

When the levee breaks

CHUCK JAFFE
By Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:21 PM ET Nov 22,

Even average homeowners feel rising mortgage floodwaters

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- While the headlines have been full of stories on the credit crunch, subprime mortgage mess and the real estate bubble, a lot of ordinary homeowners have figured they were immune from the problems.

Ensconced in a home with a prime mortgage, they have watched the news and figured they're safe. And all the while, the water has been rising.

With property values dropping in many areas of the country, a growing number of homeowners -- particularly those who bought their house in the last five years -- are looking at the prospect of being "underwater" on the mortgage. That's when the value of the home is less than the amount remaining on the loan used to buy it.

So while the nation has been focused on a record-high rate of foreclosures, the tide has been rising on a lot of people who simply had bad timing. Zillow.com, an online real estate community, reported Tuesday that home values nationally are down more than 5.5% compared with a year ago, with many markets being hit much harder.

As a result, according to Zillow, more than 15% of homeowners nationwide who bought their home in the last year are now underwater. The number is slightly worse for consumers who bought their home two years ago. By comparison, the study showed that just under 2% of people who purchased a home five years ago have seen their equity go negative.

"We are so used to the fantasy that real estate is a great investment and that it always goes up in value that we're surprised when it doesn't," says Marc Eisenson of Good Advice Press, author of the 1980s classic "The Banker's Secret," the book which first taught Americans the value of prepaying mortgages and auto loans.

"This is a scary place to be, and a lot of people who never expected to get here are watching the waters rising -- particularly if they have adjustable-rate mortgages -- and their home values sinking."

Being underwater on a loan -- and it's increasingly common on auto loans in this country too -- is not really a function of interest rates and payments. The problem that adjustable-rate mortgages pose in this market is more psychological, in that the borrower's payments are likely to rise while the asset they are paying for is depreciating. The amount owed is the same before or after the adjustment, but the higher payments simply make the situation feel more helpless.

Riding it out

Thankfully, most experts suggest that negative home equity is not something that should cause a panic, assuming the homeowner can afford the current mortgage payment and has no reason to move.

"It could take five years or longer before this thing swings around, but as long as cash flow is positive -- so that you're making the payments and living life without worrying where the equity stands in your home -- you can ride this out," says Paul Richard, director of education at the Institute for Consumer Financial Education. "The question is whether you will want to hold on to your investment if you have lost 10% or 15% or more and don't see it turning around. ... You wouldn't want to do that with most mutual funds, but you will have to decide if you will do it with your house."

For most homeowners, selling the home doesn't necessarily solve the problem. After all, if they are underwater on the mortgage, they will need to bring cash to the closing. And while they may be able to buy the next home for a lot less -- due to the drop in home prices -- there is no guarantee they will get a good mortgage rate to make the deal happen.

Renting and waiting out the decline and the real estate cycle is an option, but more for the prospective home buyer rather than the person who is up to their neck on the mortgage.

"If you can afford the payments and bought in a market that you believe will go up, then the way out of this is to drive through it, keep making the payments and plan to hold on long enough so that it pays off," says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for BankRate.com. "It's only a real problem if you're going to have to sell the house in these conditions, or if you can't make the payment."

Watch your dollars

That said, most experts also believe that when the waters are coming closer to your personal shore, you might want to change a few behaviors, even if you plan to stay in the house and ride it out.

For starters, put off significant investments in the home. While real estate agents frequently say that certain home improvements "pay for themselves" when the home is sold, that's not the case in a market where home prices are shrinking and mortgages are underwater. Instead, you're simply adding more water.

Says Eisenson: "If you want a new bathroom while your house is underwater, you need to be really confident that you can ride things out. ... Right now, you're making the situation worse by putting more into the home at a time when you possibly won't make it back."

Next, bolster the emergency fund, just in case. It's not just financial problems making headlines, but economic ones; if the economy hits home in the form of job loss, at a time when the home is underwater, the choices you're facing are ugly. A bigger cash cushion will keep options open.

Experts disagree on whether you should pay off the mortgage faster when it's underwater; paying additional principal drops the water level, but that money is not coming back if you have to move and sell the house before the market rebounds.

Paying down other debts, or putting excess cash into investments that will be positive while real estate is in the doldrums may do more to improve a homeowner's overall financial position.

Says Eisenson: "This situation is going to get worse before it gets better, so think about what you would do now. You'll probably decide to try to push through it, but if you're unprepared and you wake up one day to find out you're underwater, you're going to be scared."

Chuck Jaffe is a senior MarketWatch columnist. His work appears in dozens of U.S. newspapers.

17 reasons America needs a recession

Think positive, this 'slow motion train wreck' is good for the U.S.

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:53 PM ET Nov 19, 2007

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Yes, America needs a recession. Bernanke and Paulson won't admit it. And investors hate them. We're all trapped in outdated 1990s wishful thinking about a "new economy" and "perpetual growth."

But the truth is, not only is a recession coming, America needs a recession. So think positive: Let's focus on 17 benefits from this recession.

To begin with, recession may be an understatement. Jeremy Grantham's GMO firm manages $150 billion. In his midyear report before the credit crisis hit he predicted: "In 5 years I expect that at least one major 'bank' (broadly defined) will have failed and that up to half the hedge funds and a substantial percentage of the private-equity firms in existence today will have simply ceased to exist."

He was "watching a very slow motion train wreck." By October, it was accelerating: "Train hits end of track at full speed."

Also back in August, The Economist took a hard look at the then emerging subprime/credit crisis: "The policy dilemma facing the Fed may not be a choice of recession or no recession. It may be between a mild recession now, and a nastier one later."

However, the publication did admit that "even if a recession were in America's long-term economic interest, it would be political suicide" for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to suggest it.

Then The Economist posed the big question: Yes, "central banks must stop recessions from turning into deep depressions. But it may be wrong to prevent them altogether."

Wrong to prevent a recession? Why? Because recessions are a natural and necessary part of the business cycle. Remember legendary economist Joseph Schumpeter, champion of innovation and entrepreneurship?

Economists love Schumpeter's "creative destruction:" Obsolete firms get destroyed and capital released, making way for new technologies, new businesses, like Google. And yet, nobody's willing to apply Schumpeter's theory to the entire economy ... and admit recessions are a natural part of the business cycle.

Instead, everyone persists in the childlike fairy tale that "all growth is good" and "all recessions are bad," a bad hangover of the '90s "new economy" ideology. So for the folks at the Fed, Treasury and Wall Street, "eternal growth" is still America's mantra.

Unfortunately, the American investors' brain has also developed this blind obsession with "growth-at-all-costs," coupled with a deadly fear of all recessions, as if recessions are a lethal super-bug more powerful than Iran with a bomb.

Our values are distorted: It's OK to be greedy and overshoot the market on the upside -- grab too many assets, take on too much debt, make consumer spending a religion, live beyond our means, ignite hyperinflation along the way. Growth is good, even in excess.

And yet, recessions are a no-no that drives politicians, economists and investors ballistic.

Well, folks, you can block all this from your mind, you can argue that recessions are not a part of Schumpeter's thinking, that they are inconsistent with your political ideology. But the fact is, we let the housing/credit boom become a massive bubble, it popped and a recession is coming. So think positive, consider some of the benefits of a recession:

1. Purge the excesses of the housing boom

No, it's not heartless. Not like wartime calculations of "acceptable collateral damage." Yes, The Economist admits "the economic and social costs of recession are painful: unemployment, lower wages and profits, and bankruptcy." But we can't reverse Greenspan's excessive rate cuts that created the housing/credit crisis.

It'll be painful for everyone, especially millions of unlucky, mislead homeowners who must bear the brunt of Wall Street's greed and Washington's policy failures.

2. U.S. dollar wake-up call

Reverse the dollar's free fall and revive our global credibility. Warnings from China, France, Iran, Venezuela and supermodel Gisele haven't fazed Washington. Recession will.

3. Write-offs

Expose Wall Street's shadow-banking system. They're playing with $300 trillion in derivatives and still hiding over $100 billion of toxic off-balance sheet asset-backed securities, plus another $300 billion hidden worldwide. A lack of transparency is killing our international credibility. Write it all off, now!

4. Budgeting

Force fiscal restraint back into government. America has been living way beyond its means for years: A recession will cut back revenues at all levels of government and cutbacks will encourage balanced budgeting.

5. Overconfidence

A recession will wake up short-term investors playing the market. In bull markets traders ride the rising tide, gaining false confidence that they're financial geniuses. Downturns bruise egos but encourage rational long-term strategies.

6. Ratings

Rating agencies have massive conflicts of interest; they aren't doing their job. They're supposed to represent the investors, but favor Corporate America, which pays for the reports. Shake them up.

7. China

Trigger an internal recession in China. Make it realize America's not going into debt forever to finance China's domestic growth and military war machine. A recession will also slow recycling their reserves through sovereign funds to our equities.

8. Oil

Force the energy and auto industries to get serious about emission standards and reducing oil dependency.

9. Inflation

Expose the "core inflation" farce Washington uses to sugarcoat reality.

10. Moral hazard

Slow the Fed from cutting interest rates to bail out speculators.

11. War costs

Force Washington to get honest about how it's going to pay for our wars, other than supplemental bills that are worse than Enron-style debt financing.

12. CEO pay

Further expose CEO compensation that's now about five hundred times the salaries of workers, compared with about 40 times a generation ago.

13. Privatization

Stop the privatization of our federal government to no-bid contractors and high-priced mercenary armies fighting our wars.

14. Entitlements

Force Congress to get serious about the coming Social Security/Medicare disaster.

With boomers now retiring, this problem can only get worse: A recession now could avoid a depression later.

15. Consumers

Yes, we're all living way beyond our means, piling up excessive credit-card debt, encouraged by government leaders who tell us "deficits don't matter." Recessions will pressure individuals to reduce spending and increase savings.

16. Regulation

Lobbyists have replaced regulation. Extreme theories of unrestrained free trade plus zero regulation just don't work; proven by our credit crisis, hedge funds' nondisclosures, private-equity taxation, rating agencies failures, junk home mortgages, and more. Get real, folks.

17. Sacrifice

"We have not seen a nationwide decline in housing like this since the Great Depression, says Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf. As individuals and as a nation Americans have always performed best in crises, like the Depression or WWII, times when we're all asked to make sacrifices. Pampering us with interest-rate cuts and tax cuts during the Iraq and Afghan wars may have stimulated the economy temporarily, but they delayed the real damage of the '90s stock bubble while setting the stage for this new subprime/credit crisis.

Wake up, the train wrecked. Time to think positive, find solutions, demand sacrifices.